[UNFAIR] Random number generator?

[asymptote]

OK, i'm not actually complaining, because I beat him most of the time anyway, but I was wondering if there was a handicap in place for the 1-st person in Trajan?

It would seem that asymptote vs. IPF, 17 of the last 19 games start with P1 as an advantage.

I actually think this would be better balance for this game, but was wondering if this was the case, or if there's a bug in the random number generator, or if it's something else?

Thanks.

[asymptote]

screen63.jpg (55.7 Kio) Consulté 8950 fois

Just got another game where I'm P2.. Ignoring some weird binomial expansion, I'm thinking it's like.. 1 in 16k or 1in 32k ish chance?

LOL

[gutmeister]

Odds of being second 18 out of 20 times I believe is: (20 Choose 2) / 2^20 = a little less than 1 in 6000. Pretty decent guess though !

Odds of 19/20 are 20 / 2^20 = 1/52,000 and 0 out of 20 one in a million.

So yeah unlikely, but maybe not evidence of an error in the random number generator?

[diplojak]

I searched many times, but never found any evidence of an error in the random number generator.

Personally it is when I throw dice IRL than I wonder if there is not a bug somewhere

[asymptote]

Not particularly complaining.

I know about probability but this is quite out of the ordinary.

[Josquin]

I've forgotten who, but one of our fellow players here on BAJ has his automatic signature at the end of his posts running something like this:
" A one to a million chance?? They crop out 9 times out of ten! "

Something to be contemplated, from the mathematical and the philosophical side...

[manusib]

And this...
[img]

Trajan_hasard.jpg

[/img]
Well all right, it is not enough to conclude that the random is not respected.

[Striker]

As a premium feature, when starting a new game and inviting guests, would you consider setting P1, P2, etc, at that time?
Some times it is nice to set this with friends rather than have randomly assigned. Would stop this 'argument' that you are always first player

((Please move to Premium features forum if appropriate))

[frederic.moulis]

the players are shuffled when a game starts. whatever the board game. As the random generator is used for all games on boiteajeux, to shuffle cards, players, roll dice, and so on, no, there is no bug

[sparc2000]

This is the difference between statistics and probabilities !
Let's have a look at your 20 games :
- Probabilities are exactly the same for these 2 configurations :
A, A, A, A, A, A, A, A, A, A, A, A, A, A, A, A, A, A, A, A : A starting the game every time
A, B, A, B, A, B, A, B, A, B, A, B, A, B, A, B, A, B, A, B : A & B starting the game alternately

In the second case, you won't notice this configuration. But you do when it's approaching the first configuration.
Why ? Because of the statistics !

Statistically, there are more chances to start a game 10 times among 20 than to start the game all the 20 times.
Because there are a lot of configurations mixing 10 A and 10 B.
However every configuration has still the same probability as the 2 configurations above !
But if the order is : A, B, A, B, A, B, A, B, A, A, B, B, A, B, A, B, A, B, A, B, you won't see the difference because the result at the end is the same.

Play 20 other games, and 20 more, and 20 more.
You'll see that it is not happening so often to start10 games among 20.

[kak618]

the random dice are not very random in Nations, rerolls are nearly always the same or close enough to annoy!!! Dice in Castles of Burgundy are same way, differentiation lacks, and is maddening. Use a different radomizer algorithm! Whatever stock algorithm you're using isn't working all that well if people are making forum posts multiple times, as I am seeing.

[covadis]

Yes of course, the random is not random, that's why you are not happy! Not because you are loosing.
I think you have to look for many games history and make the computation of many results. After you can open an incident to php / js or any languages used on this site if the random is not a good random.

[frederic.moulis]

multiple times

You mean, 3 ?

[lynkowsky]

typical situation in nation dice game : you have 3 white dice, gold - gold - food. You reroll because you need sword.

Luck to have sword : 42% (1- 5/6³)
Luck to have only 1 (or 0) different die : 45%

So, yes, quite often (58%), while rerolling 3 dice you do not have what you need, and qite often (45%) you have allmoste the same. This is something called randomness and probabilities.

[fred_eli]

agree with kak618 about rerolling in Nations :

I too had this strange feeling, in Nations, than when *rerolling* I often get all the dices unchanged (and not just that the configuration is equivalent : one by one, each dice is the same).

That might be a problem, not with the random generator, but with the code to select which dices are asked to be rerolled by the server
(i.e. you think you selected 3 ones on the client side, but none or only 1 as been received as "to reroll" to the server. As such, being not rerolled, when the web pages updates you get the exact same value(s) as before

Could it be, when clicking fast to select and then pushing the reroll to the server, that in some slow network or on some web browser, we get this bug ?