par **sparc2000** » 26 Oct 2015 13:52

This is the difference between statistics and probabilities !

Let's have a look at your 20 games :

- Probabilities are exactly the same for these 2 configurations :

A, A, A, A, A, A, A, A, A, A, A, A, A, A, A, A, A, A, A, A : A starting the game every time

A, B, A, B, A, B, A, B, A, B, A, B, A, B, A, B, A, B, A, B : A & B starting the game alternately

In the second case, you won't notice this configuration. But you do when it's approaching the first configuration.

Why ? Because of the statistics !

Statistically, there are more chances to start a game 10 times among 20 than to start the game all the 20 times.

Because there are a lot of configurations mixing 10 A and 10 B.

However every configuration has still the same probability as the 2 configurations above !

But if the order is : A, B, A, B, A, B, A, B, A, A, B, B, A, B, A, B, A, B, A, B, you won't see the difference because the result at the end is the same.

Play 20 other games, and 20 more, and 20 more.

You'll see that it is not happening so often to start10 games among 20.